DEVELOPMENT OF PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR INTRA-CITY BUS TRAVEL TIME IN MAKURDI METROPOLIS IN NIGERIA
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Date
2020-02-06
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Ahmadu Bello University Zaria
Abstract
The lack of information on bus travel time in Makurdi metropolis to enable trip makers
plan for journeys is seen as a challenge in recent times. This study developed a multiple
linear regression model for predicting bus travel time along bus routes within the
metropolis and this was achieved throughmeasurement of the physical characteristics of
the roadway, identification of those factors that constitute impediment to intra-city bus
travel time, measurement of intra-city bus travel time on the routes and development of
prediction models for intra-city bus travel time using statistical package for social science
and the development of curve fittings for the built models with data collected from field
survey. The physical characteristic of the routes under study was determined and the lane
width values obtained on the field where 3.6m, 3.7m, and 3.5m for Wadata, Modern
Market, and Air force base routes respectively and these values conform with the Federal
Ministry of works Highway Design Manuel 2013 which states that 3.35-4.0m lane width be
used for safety, efficiency and ease of operation and the manual also states that the
minimum median width be 1.2m and usable shoulder width of 3m are desirable on all
highways but narrow widths are acceptable on low volume highway.The factors that affect
intra-city bus travel times were also determined with speed of travel, dwell times, 3-leg
intersection and Cross intersections, volume of traffic which all ranged from 427-775
vehicles/hour which falls under the traffic category of heavy traffic as stated in the Federal
Ministry of works Highway Design Manual, 2013 that traffic more than 1000vehicles/day
belongs to Heavy traffic, and number of roundabout and the route lengths been
predominant.